Donald Trump thinks he can sit down and ink a "grand bargain" with Tehran in twenty-four hours. He’s said it on the campaign trail, and he’s hinted at it through back channels. But if you look at the actual temperature in Tehran, specifically among the men who wear the green uniforms of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), that's not just optimistic. It’s a total fantasy.
Iran’s military leadership isn't just skeptical. They're openly dismissive. While the diplomat class in the Iranian Foreign Ministry might use flowery language to keep doors cracked open, the generals are the ones holding the keys to the house. And right now, those generals are reminding everyone that they haven't forgotten the last time they dealt with a Trump administration. Don't miss our earlier article on this related article.
The shadow of 2020 hangs over every handshake
You can't talk about a "new deal" without talking about January 3, 2020. That's the day a U.S. drone strike killed Qasem Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport. To the West, he was a mastermind of regional instability. To the Iranian military establishment, he was a living legend and a peerless strategist.
When Trump claims he wants a fair deal that makes Iran "rich" and "great," the IRGC commanders don't hear a business proposal. They see the man who ordered the assassination of their most iconic leader. General Hossein Salami, the head of the IRGC, has made it clear that "mercenary" logic doesn't work on them. They aren't looking for a buyout. They're looking for a shift in regional power that the U.S. isn't ready to give. To read more about the background here, NPR provides an excellent breakdown.
The "Maximum Pressure" campaign of the first Trump term didn't just tank the Iranian rial. It hardened the resolve of the hardliners. It proved their point. They argued for years that the U.S. couldn't be trusted to keep its word, especially after the unilateral exit from the JCPOA in 2018. When Trump walked away from a deal that Iran was actually following—as verified by the IAEA—he handed the hardliners a "told you so" moment that will last for decades.
Why the military calls the shots on diplomacy
In most countries, the military follows the lead of the civilian government. In Iran, it’s a bit more complicated. The IRGC isn't just a branch of the armed forces; it’s a massive economic conglomerate and a political powerhouse. They own construction companies, telecommunications firms, and energy interests.
Sanctions actually help some of these IRGC-linked entities by eliminating foreign competition. When Trump talks about lifting sanctions in exchange for ending the ballistic missile program, he's asking the IRGC to dismantle its own leverage. Why would they trade their most effective deterrent—their missiles and regional proxies—for a promise from a man who might be out of office in four years?
It’s a bad business deal.
They’ve seen how American policy flips every four to eight years. For a regime that thinks in terms of centuries, the four-year American election cycle looks like a joke. They want "guarantees" that no U.S. president can actually provide.
The nuclear leverage game
Let’s be real about the nuclear program. Iran is closer to breakout capacity than ever before. They’ve got cascades of advanced IR-6 centrifuges spinning, and they’re enriching uranium to 60% purity. That’s a stone’s throw from weapons-grade 90%.
Military leaders like Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani have signaled that Iran’s defense doctrine is built on "active deterrence." They aren't going to stop that momentum because of a Truth Social post. They use this nuclear progress as a shield. It’s the only thing they feel keeps them from ending up like Libya or Iraq.
Trump’s rhetoric suggests he can use his "art of the deal" skills to convince them otherwise. But the Iranians have spent the last few years perfecting their own art. They’ve pivoted to the East. They’ve strengthened ties with Russia and China. They’ve joined the BRICS+ group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They aren't as isolated as they were in 2017.
The proxy network is not for sale
Another huge sticking point is the "Axis of Resistance." This is the network of partners and proxies including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria. Trump wants a deal that stops Iran from funding these groups.
For the IRGC, this is a non-starter. This network is their "forward defense." They’d rather fight their enemies in the Levant and the Red Sea than in the streets of Tehran or Isfahan. Expecting them to trade away Hezbollah for better trade terms is like asking a person to trade their front door for a nicer TV. It doesn't make sense if you think the neighbors are trying to break in.
Breaking down the credibility gap
Trust is a currency. Right now, the U.S. is bankrupt in the eyes of the Iranian military.
- The JCPOA Collapse: The 2018 exit is the original sin. It destroyed the moderate camp in Iran and decimated the political career of people like Javad Zarif who argued for engagement.
- The Soleimani Strike: This turned a political rivalry into a blood feud.
- The Sanctions Overreach: By targeting everything from oil to carpets, the U.S. forced Iran to build a "resistance economy." They’ve learned how to survive in the dark.
Trump’s frequent claims that Iran is "dying" to make a deal are largely for his domestic audience. It sounds good at a rally. It makes him look like a master negotiator. But inside the headquarters of the Iranian General Staff, the reaction is a mix of laughter and deep suspicion. They see a trap.
How this actually plays out on the ground
If a second Trump term begins, expect a period of intense posturing. Iran will likely ramp up its nuclear activity or conduct high-profile military drills in the Persian Gulf to show they aren't intimidated. They'll use the "threat" of a deal to squeeze concessions out of their new partners in Moscow and Beijing.
The military leaders will likely allow the diplomats to talk. Talking is cheap. It buys time. But don't expect a signature on a piece of paper that involves giving up missiles or regional influence.
Watch the rhetoric versus the reality
Keep an eye on the state-run media in Tehran. When the IRGC-affiliated outlets like Tasnim or Fars start calling Trump’s overtures "deceptive" or "a poisoned chalice," believe them. They aren't just posturing for the cameras. They’re setting the boundaries for what the Supreme Leader is allowed to consider.
The path to a real deal doesn't go through a summit or a photo op. it goes through a fundamental shift in how both sides view security in the Middle East. As long as the U.S. views Iran as a target for regime change and Iran views the U.S. as an "arrogant power" that breaks its word, the stalemate holds.
If you're tracking this, stop looking for "breakthrough" headlines and start looking at the IRGC’s budget and missile tests. That’s where the truth is. Until the military commanders see a benefit that outweighs the risk of being betrayed again, they'll keep their hands on the triggers and their doors locked tight.
Stay skeptical of any news claiming a "secret deal" is imminent. Look at the specific demands. If the U.S. isn't offering a permanent, legally binding treaty—which is impossible in the current Senate—Iran’s generals will stay in the "dismissive" camp. They've played this game before, and they're betting they can outlast any single American administration.
Pay attention to the rhetoric coming out of the Iranian Parliament as well. The current body is packed with hardliners who have close ties to the military. They’ve already passed laws that make it legally difficult for the government to negotiate while sanctions are in place. This isn't a one-man show in Tehran; it's a massive, bureaucratic machine designed to resist outside pressure.
Watch the oil markets too. As long as Iran can find ways to ship crude to "dark" refineries in Asia, they have the cash flow to keep the military happy. Until that tap is truly dry, the IRGC has no reason to blink. They aren't looking for a deal. They're looking for survival on their own terms.
